Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
