Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
